We have been talking about a lot about our projections in this newsletter since we released them. Last week, we had Justin Rose as our number 2 value play and number 1 value play in the 7k range.

On Thursday for round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open, Twitterless Steve saw an edge with guys playing the north course and went 13-2 on round score props.

Here is our recap video highlighting a great week at ISN:

TPC Scottsdale features a Tour average slope, and higher skilled players separated to lower skilled players at a very similar rate to the average PGA Tour course. Despite Scheffler achieving remarkable course history here, I wouldn’t argue that this is all that better of a golf course for him than the Stadium Course at PGA West. The only difference is that Scheffler will get four rounds at TPC Scottsdale, compared to just two rounds at the Stadium Course in his first start of the season.

In terms of the golf course itself, TPC Scottsdale rules. While I’m generally not a fan of TPC-style architecture (a little gimmicky for my taste), TPC Scottsdale outlines the ideal template for a PGA Tour course. It’s not about homogenous execution, there are some legitimate shot values and decisions that players will need to make, particularly down the stretch. The 16th hole is a much better setting than an actual golf hole, and the 18th falls touch flat as well. The 17th, on the other hand, is an immensely engaging drivable par four, and it’s one of my favorite holes to watch on the entire PGA Tour.

Weather wise this year, it looks like Thursday is really going to be the only windy day, and then Friday, Saturday, and Sunday should be beautiful. Warm weather this year should provide ideal scoring conditions, and lack of rain should yield a standard amount of firmness. There have been rumblings that the rough will be up this year compared to prior years, but I still wouldn’t expect much deviation from our average scoring average of -1.

For the rest of our WM Phoenix Open preview article, click the button below:

Qatar Masters Tournament & Course Preview

Bexico City

This week we have the Qatar Masters at long-time host Doha Golf Club. There was a brief move away from Doha GC after 2019, but it returned in 2022 with the old Bermuda greens replaced by new paspalum greens. Doha is a long 7,508-yard stock par 72 that plays as an exposed desert course, often in windy conditions, with large greens. It played to a scoring average of +0.19 in 2025, +0.09 in 2024 and +0.85 in 2022 with winning scores of -16, -14 and -7 and only 9 players reaching -10 over these three years. The 2023 event was an outlier, held in October rather than the usual early season event and played to a much easier -1.0 scoring average.

The easiest hole on the course is the drivable 307-yard 16th played over a large rock outcrop to a mostly defenseless green. The short 535-yard par five 10th is also a great birdie chance, although it plays much harder when the pin is on the small left section sitting atop a rock wall. The other three par fives are all long, with the 639-yard 9th rarely reached in two shots and often playing around or over par, and the 590-yard 1st and 18th no pushovers. The 18th in particular can be a great risk/reward finish, with it often on the players limit to reach in two shots and water guarding the short/left side of the green.

The hardest hole on the course is the long 521 par four 15th, with one of the narrower corridors between the desert and a dangerous second shot over water if out of position. There are another four par fours between 450 and 490 yards that consistently play over par (holes 5, 6, 11 and 12), with the other four par fours between 390 and 435 yards playing to about par. Three of the par threes are between 195 and 225 yards and are difficult, typically playing to around 0.2 over par. The exception is the short 155-yard 17th, with a shallow but extremely wide green.

For the rest of our Qatar Masters preview article, click the button below:

Another lackluster performance from my OAD pick. I selected Chris Gotterup at the Farmers Insurance Open and he finished T18. I haven’t had a OAD pick truly contend this week so I am hoping that changes this week.

I believe this is the perfect spot to deploy Mav McNealy (unless you are saving him Pebble next week since he grew up on the golf course).

Mav has been one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour over the last year or so. He is coming off a T24 at Sony and a 10th place finish at Farmers. He doesn’t have a glaring weakness in his game that will suit him well as you need a good overall game at TPC Scottsdale. He has great history at the WM Phoenix Open, finishing T6 in 2024 and T9 in 2025. He is one of the best putters in the field, specifically on Poa Trivialis greens. If he can improve his OTT play a little bit this week, I expect him to give himself a chance to win on Super Bowl Sunday.

I believe we have golf’s next great rivalry forming upon us: LIV Golf vs The OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings). 

For years now, LIV Golf has been complaining to the public how they should be awarded OWGR points for their exhibition league. The day has finally come for LIV Golf and their dream has come true. The OWGR announced yesterday that LIV Golf will be awarded OWGR points. 

Here was the statement from the OWGR:

However, if you read the fine print, there’s some interesting stipulations that chairman Trevor Immelman has laid out, one of which is a "virtual cut”. This means that only players that finish inside the top 10 in a given week will be awarded OWGR points. This does make sense to an extent, considering that the field size of a LIV Golf event is only 57 players. The OWGR has a requirement if a tournament is not cut that the field at the minimum needs to be 75 players.

LIV Golf wasted no time and posted their own statement on receiving OWGR points:

After all the moaning that LIV Golf have shared, to release this type of statement is laughable and outright disrespectful. They are acting like such a victim to these harsh rules when they fail to look in the mirror that they are the ones that are doing this to themselves due to the structure of the league. 

My favorite quote from their statement was “Under these rules, a player finishing 11th in a LIV Golf event is treated the same as a player finishing 57th”. We all know that there’s only 57 players in the field and that 57th player finishes dead last. You could have said just last place! 

They just continue to spew nonsense and propaganda that everyone sniffs out and makes fun of online. As Zach Johnson said to fans at the WM Phoenix Open in 2024, “I am sick of it”. 

It’s so hard to take this organization seriously after their statement issued yesterday and the fact that they released one of the funniest sports graphics of all time. They had their CEO Scott O’Neil front and center of the graphic, while also misspelling three players' names, two of whom were Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson, two of the biggest faces of the league. 

Going back to the OWGR’s statement, I believe Trevor Immelman and his team has had enough of LIV Golf’s demands and decided just to give them points so they don’t have to deal with them for the time being. They did give LIV Golf ample restrictions for players to gain points and for good reason.   

I thought what was quite interesting was Trevor Immelman's statement, “We look forward to working with them on implementing this approach with immediate effect for the 2026 LIV Golf season.”

The key word there is 2026. My initial take after reading that quote is that this is purely just a band aid for LIV Golf. If LIV Golf doesn’t make changes that the OWGR wants from them, will LIV Golf lose the ability to gain OWGR points in 2027? That would be quite interesting and a funny wrinkle to this all.

My Favorite Super Bowl Props

The Super Bowl is one of the few tournaments that its accepted you can bet on nonsense and not be judged or called a “degenerate”. Just take a couple of fun prop bets that you can only take because its the Super Bowl and enjoy the game.

Here are my three favorite Super Bowl props I am taking this year:

Opening Coin Toss Outcome: Tails -103

The coin toss might be the most American bet you can make on the board. I don’t want to hear it from the nerds that say this bet is -EV because the true odds should be 50/50. As I said, you get one day a year to place these kind of stupid bets. Tails never fails!

Total Players To Have A Pass Attempt? Over 2.5 +160

This is my favorite bet on the board by far to root for throughout the game. I remember hitting this in the most recent Chiefs 49ers Super Bowl when Jauan Jennings threw a TD to Christian McCafferey. Writing that sentence just gave me PTSD when the 49ers ran the same play vs the Eagles in this years Wild Card round. It’s one of those bets that can hit at any moment and you have no idea when its coming.

First Team To Take an Offensive Snap in the Opponent’s Red Zone: NE Patriots +110

I want a prop that has you on the edge of your seat as a team is starting to sustain a solid drive. With this type of bet, you have to take the juice and take the underdog. My real analysis is that I believe the Pats will come out and be the first team to score. I trust Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels who have played and coached in plenty of Super Bowls to have their guys more prepared to start the game. There’s some questions about Maye’s banged up shoulder, but I believe he will want to show off to everyone that he is perfectly fine and hopefully be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy Sunday night.

Boston Capper

The Patriots Unexpected Rise Back To The Super Bowl

It’s been 25 years since the Patriots were real underdogs in the Super Bowl. In 2001, a young Capper came out of boot camp in October and asked, “Who the hell is Tom Brady?”

Since that moment, the Patriots became the unquestioned greatest dynasty in NFL history.

Before we were the Evil Empire, everyone hated the sight of Brady and Bill America rooting for us. Brady was a sixth-round pick. Bill was a castoff from Cleveland. You know the story.

Then came the cheating scandals, Brady acting like a weirdo, and us fans rivaling Philly for the most obnoxious in sports. Suddenly, everyone hated us and wanted us to fail.

And fail we did.

Kraft chose the wrong side of history and stuck with Bill. Brady left and immediately won another Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Bill tried to prove he could do it without him by pretending Cam Newton and Mac Jones were real quarterbacks.

We all know how that turned out.

Then Kraft hired Mayo possibly one of the worst coaching hires in history. There was no light at the end of the tunnel. It felt like it was all Brady, and nothing else ever mattered. We were back to being the laughingstock we were when I was a kid.

Seven long years without a Super Bowl. No hope in sight.

Until…

(Is that Mike Vrabel’s music???)

I had zero faith this would change anything. I wasn’t sure Maye was legit. I was fully prepared to hate watch my team for the fifth straight year.

Instead, Vrabel and his staff coached them up. They took advantage of a historically bad schedule and ran through playoff teams led by backup-level quarterbacks.

And now? That trend continues in the Super Bowl.

I don’t buy Sam Darnold for a second. He’s still the same jittery, mentally fragile QB he was with the Jets and in big games with the Vikings. Yeah, he looked good against the MASH unit that was the Rams’ defense. I don’t care. They stink. It was his third time facing them, and the only reason they won earlier was because of two ridiculous free points and Sammy playing like garbage.

Our defense is peaking at the right time.

Williams and Barmore are game wreckers. Spillane will play. Our corners are ball hawks. We shut down everyone’s run game. We’ll force Sam to beat us with Shaheed, Kupp, and Barner.

Good luck.

Drake Maye is a young gunslinger. His shoulder seems healthy. The weather should be good. Our ragtag group of castoff receivers will find a way to make plays.

Seattle’s defense is legit, no doubt. But Maye has already faced three elite defenses on this run. Even when we didn’t score much, he stayed composed and made big plays when it mattered. It won’t shock him.

The last time America gave us no shot, it sparked the greatest dynasty in sports history.

Now we’ve got a defensive-minded coach and a young superstar quarterback again.

Feels like history is repeating itself.

We’re back, America.

Our head tennis analyst Rishi hit the winner of the women’s Aussie Open with Rybakina at 10/1. Rishi had a great overall Aussie Open. The tennis discord continues to have high energy talking about every tournament on the calendar. Come join us to talk tennis!