It was a legendary 2026 Cognizant Classic as we had multiple staff members hit Nico Ech. Across our multiple shows throughout the week, we talked about:

• Nico Echavarria (Won)

• Shane Lowry (T2)

• Taylor Moore (T2)

• Ricky Castillo (5th)

• Nicolai Hojgaard (T6)

• Keith Mitchell (T6)

• Brooks Koepka (T9)

• Rasmus Hojgaard (T9 + highest value play)

• AJ Ewart (T13)

Check out our Cognizant Classic Recap video below ⬇️

Each of the last 2 years, Bay Hill has either strongly favored accuracy, or favored accuracy, but the prior 4 years before hand, it has favored bombers or strongly favored bombers. If we really start to zoom out and look at the in event correlations and the predictive nature of this golf course, I’d rather have you be accurate here than I would long, particularly with how this trend has been the last 2 years. Yet the answer to the question is both distance and accuracy matter at Bay Hill, and each of the last 5 years it has ranked top-5 in OTT difficulty.

The fairways are about 32 yards wide and rank middle of the pack in width, and the missed fairway penalty has been top-10 each of the last three years. The rough penalty has been top-5 three out of the last 5 years and Bay Hill also ranks top-12 every year in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. If you want to test distance on the PGA Tour, just make the golf course long, and Bay Hill is long enough. If you want to test accuracy on the PGA Tour, the equation is a little more complicated. There are two components that a course need to has to test accuracy, and Bay Hill has both of them. 

1.     Wide enough fairways that players actually have a chance of hitting them. The last three years, Bay Hill has ranked between the 12th and 17th lowest driving accuracy on Tour.

2.  A enough high rough penalty and large misses must be more penalized than small misses. Bay Hill does this, Torrey Pines doesn’t. There are plenty of holes at Bay Hill where if you miss small, you’re in the rough, but if you miss big, you’re in the water.

Distance is always more predictive than driving accuracy because driving accuracy is a more volatile statistic, but in the event, accuracy had a higher in event correlation bump than distance. 

Both distance and accuracy are highly correlated with success at Bay Hill, but accuracy has had a higher in event correlation each of the last four years, and last year, 8 of the top 10 ranked top-30 in driving accuracy, and only 3 of the top 10 ranked top-30 in driving distance. We don’t usually see that big of a gap, but Bay Hill has a surprisingly low driver usage percentage for how long it is. Yet its highly important to be playing from the fairway, as firm greens always increase the importance of driving accuracy when there’s a decent rough penalty.

For the rest of Andy’s preview, click here.

Bexico City

Off the tee Houghton isn’t a dangerous golf course but it’s no pushover. The fairways are narrow at only 25 yards wide and difficult to hit with a driving accuracy rate below 60% in each of the three events. They are tree lined, but there is some space between the fairway edge and the trees and while there is noticeable rough, it isn’t penal enough to be a significant problem. The trees tend to be large and with canopies that limit high recovery shots at the green, but the vegetation isn’t thick enough to limit punch shots forward or cause the unplayable penalties that really demand accuracy. None of the water comes into play off the tee, and while there are a few out of bounds threats (primarily right of 11), they are mostly far enough away that very few shots are impacted which further limits the accuracy requirement.

There are plenty of fairway bunkers and they tend to have the biggest impact on the shorter par fours. The 13th and 17th holes have cross bunkers that promote laying up short of them, and similarly the 6th and 11th holes have bunkers that narrow the fairway with layups to the wider section common. Overall, Houghton is a slightly below average driver usage course, with these layup holes balanced with some of the other longer holes being driver heavy (especially early in the round) for an estimated driver usage of 7-10 times a round.

Statistically driving is not crucial at Houghton. Unfortunately, for these events with no shot tracker, stats are only kept for the DPWT members. But looking at the 11 players we have stats on that finished in the top 5 over the past 3 years, 6 of the 11 finished below average in driving accuracy and only 1 of the 11 was in the top 10 in accuracy. Distance has been a little more helpful, with the 5 holes over 500 yards and the 1st becoming more reachable, but it still hasn’t been crucial. The average ranking of these 11 players was 30th in distance and 37th in accuracy for a strokes gained off the tee average ranking of 27th (out of the roughly 80 that were measured each year).

There have been some bombers contend, including Dean Burmester who won in 2023 (not measured). But players like Daniel Van Tonder, Darren Fichardt and Jacques Kruyswijk have also contended while being well below average in distance. While I would lean distance over accuracy (especially in terms of outrights upside), you can get it done off the tee either way, and generally you don’t need to be a great driver to have success with driving somewhat devalued.

For the rest of Bexico’s preview, click here.

Jason Kelce is TGL’s Johnson Wagner

If you told me a couple years ago that Jason Kelce would be on a golf-type broadcast, I would have called you crazy. Additionally, if you told me that we would have a weekly simulator golf league televised on ESPN, I would have called you crazy too. 

Super Bowl winning center Jason Kelce, more famously known for co-hosting the prestigious New Heights podcast and brother of Taylor Swift’s fiance, was invited to be a part of TGL’s broadcast the last three nights. 

When I tuned some of the matches, all I could do was compare Jason Kelce’s vibrant energetic role on the TGL broadcast to Johnson Wagner’s role on NBC, and now CBS, the last couple of years.

After throwing golf balls into the ground at the 2024 Players like he was trying to get someone out in dodgeball, Wagner grew in popularity for these types of bits. NBC decided to allocate time after the tournament for Wagner to recreate pivotal shots to see how he could compare (or say stack up?) to the pro who hit the shot. He famously attempted Bryson’s 55 yard fairway bunker shot at Pinehurst No 2, and even stuck it closer than Bryson did!

Bryson was there watching and provided what he was thinking through his shot. When Wagner pulled off the bunker shot, he celebrated with Bryson and the US Open trophy. 

Circling back to Kelce at the TGL matches, ESPN has had him all over the Sofi Center. They had him under the 5,000+ square-foot green explaining how the platform rotates after every hole, hung out on a crane near the top of the 3,000+ square foot simulator screen from a birds eye view to provide some commentary, put on a ball boy suit that was way too small, chugged a drink against Neal Shipley, who is a fellow Philadelphia Eagles fan, went through Tommy Fleetwood's locker of toiletries, and many more little bits. 

As an Eagles fan, I do love Kelce and have appreciated what he has done for the city and community of Philadelphia, however, I do have my qualms with his oversaturation of content. I feel like every time I open social media or turn on my television, he’s on my screen either doing something in football, something with Travis, or in a commercial. 

I do think he’s a really good personality, and I am not taking away from that, but his appearances on TGL were too much. I thought it took away from what people are actually tuning in for which is the simulator golf. 

Yes, I know that the TGL is kind of unserious and it's more of an entertainment product. I do like the idea of having someone like Jason Kelce be a part of the broadcast, but if you are watching the match you would have thought he was the main show and then the golf matches were secondary.

Kelce did do some fun interviews with players, but the TGL and ESPN almost centering the last couple of days to be the quote on quote “Kelce Show” was too much for my liking.

Rishi Loungani

Indian Wells Predictions

Indian Wells (Tennis Paradise) likes to brand itself as tennis’ “fifth Slam,” which is fair—because it absolutely feels like one. The desert courts are slow, the bounce is high, the wind has commitment issues, and rallies tend to last just long enough for you to question your life choices. It’s a tournament that rewards patience, fitness, and the ability to construct a point like you’re building IKEA furniture without the instructions.

Taylor Fritz (35/1)

Native to Southern California, at 35/1, Fritz feels like the classic “why is this number so big?” pick. He’s comfortable in the desert, his serve and forehand do plenty of damage even on slower courts, and he’s already proven he can handle the spotlight here. If he’s landing first serves and ripping forehands, he’s got the game and the confidence to make a serious run. Having won here before, I like the price and upside. 

Jess Pegula (11/1)

Pegula at 11/1 is less “lottery ticket” and more “responsible investment with strong fundamentals.” She returns like she’s personally offended by your serve, thrives in long rallies, and rarely donates free points. Coming off a major win in Dubai, she has a lot of momentum. On a surface that rewards clean timing and tactical IQ, she’s basically built in a lab for Indian Wells. It might not always be flashy, but it’s incredibly effective, which is usually how trophies get won.

We alluded to this early but the Nico Ech outright was truly a community win for our subscribers. We had a ton of people win big in the outright market and in DFS. Check out our recap video: