Even though none of our staff members had Akshay Bhatia, we had some incredible DFS shoutouts from across our live shows this week. Andy’s favorite 6k play, which turned out to be his gummy play on our staff picks sheet in Daniel Berger was the best call of the week.

Check out our API recap video below from our Wednesday Night Premium show. If you like this type of content, make sure to subscribe to ISN! Tonights Premium show is the most important show of the year as we are having our very own Twitterless Steve breakdown the final weather report tonight. The forecast right now looks like it could create some chaos so you won’t want to miss what our staff has to say tonight.

Link to our website can be found here.

TPC Sawgrass is one of the most accuracy-heavy golf courses on the PGA TOUR, and each of the last three years, it has strongly favored accuracy. Do not be misled by Rory McIlroy at the top of the leaderboard last year; this is an accuracy over distance course through and through. TPC Sawgrass is one of the few courses where accuracy is both significantly more predictive than distance, as well as more important in the actual tournament. Distance is strongly de-valued as well, as long hitters are disadvantaged by over a quarter stroke per round compared to an average course, while short hitters gain almost a quarter stroke per round. Accurate players pick up nearly a quarter stroke per round and inaccurate players lose nearly a quarter stroke per round. The difference between being an accurate vs. inaccurate driver of the ball is half a stroke per round.

Now, the golf course has gotten longer the last two years, which has increased the driver usage to now around 68%. Thus, I would not call this a purely club-down course anymore, and the driving accuracy percentage ranks right around Tour average to slightly below Tour average. Once again, the fairways are just wide enough that accurate players do have the ability to hit fairways and separate via their precision. These fairways always rank between the 12th and 17th most narrow on the PGA TOUR. Each of the last 3 years, the missed fairway penalty has ranked top-5 on Tour, and this will be the second year where the rough will be listed at four inches. After ranking 16th through 23rd in 2018 to 221, Sawgrass has already has ranked top-7 in rough penalty each of the last four years, Of course, it always also ranks top-15 in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke as well.

For Andy’s full Players preview article, click here.

Here is a snippet from Andy’s Preview podcast talking about driving accuracy:

I took a shot with Si Woo Kim at 2.5% in the RickRunGood OAD pool. He finished T13, scoring $373,200 for me. He certainly didn’t kill me compared to the other players I waas thinking about taking like Rory, who WD and screwed everyone who picked him. It was the same Si Woo performance of elite ball striking and not being able to make a single putt of significance.

I have been thinking a lot about who I am selecting at the Players, which is the biggest purse of the year of $25 million, with the winner taking home $4.5 million. I am avoiding chalk at the top that is Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg, who I actually bet both to win this golf tournament.

My pick for the Players Championship in OAD is Xander Schauffele.

I agree that he hasn’t looked the best this year, but I believe he’s beginning to ramp up. He’s played pretty well in the signature events this year: Pebble Beach T19, Genesis T7, and API T24. He was towards the top of the leaderboard at the API through the first two rounds, but faded on the weekend.

Xander’s all around game with no glaring weakness sets up perfectly for TPC Sawgrass. I have been reading reports on twitter that this years TPC Sawgrass will play more firm and the rough is thicker, so around-the-green play might be more important. Xander has a world class short game to get around these potential tricks.

This pick might be risky but I want to take a chance with one of the best players in the world at low ownership.

2026 OAD Total: $1,635,428

Closing Stretch

Andy Lack

After a long and extremely competitive Oscars season, the big night finally comes on Sunday. Outside of golf, movies and Oscars is a real pastime for me. I always try and see at least 50 movies a year (as many as I can in theaters), and rank all of them. Included in that list are all of the Oscar nominees, so for each of the major categories, I will give who will win, and who should win. While I listen to an embarrassing amount of Oscar podcasts and follow all of the precursor awards, I am bringing on a real expert, my friend Robert, who sees double the movies I do, and is a true cinephile and Oscars expert, for a members only Oscars show tomorrow at InsideSportsNetwork.com. Disclaimer, I would highly recommend following Robert’s picks over mine, but I can at least provide an introductory course to those looking to wet their beaks. 

“One Battle After Another” has won just about everything under the sun, and is the undisputed frontrunner for Best Picture. No film in history that has won at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, ACE Eddies, DGA, PGA and WGA — along with at least one SAG prize — has ever lost best picture. However, “Sinners” holds the ACE, SAG ensemble and WGA, and no film has while winning those three awards as well. For all of the categories, I have ranked all of the nominees based on their likelihood to win, and also given their corresponding FanDuel odds. 

Best Picture 

1. One Battle After Another (-500) (76% on Polymarket)

2. Sinners (+340) (21%) on Polymarket)

3. Hamnet (18/1) (2% on Polymarket)

4. Sentimental Value (40/1) 

5. Marty Supreme (27/1) 

6. The Secret Agent (50/1) 

7. Train Dreams (50/1) 

8. Frankenstein (50/1) 

9. Bugonia (50/1) 

10. F1 (50/1) 

What Will Win: One Battle After Another 

What Should Win: One Battle After Another

Best Director 

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-1500) (94% on Polymarket)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+800) (6% on Polymarket)

3. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet (20/1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (45/1)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (33/1) 

Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (-4000) (96% on Polymarket)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (10/1) (3% on Polymarket)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (33/1) (1% on Polymarket)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (20/1)

5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (40/1) 

Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet 

What Should Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet 

Best Actor 

1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (-185) (58% on Polymarket) 

2. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme (+175) (34% on Polymarket)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (18/1) (4% on Polymarket)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (14/1) (3% on Polymarket)

5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (33/1) (1% on Polymarket)

Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Who Should Win: Timothee Chalamet

Best Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (+210) (26% on Polymarket)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (-125) (50% on Polymarket)

3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (+320) (22% on Polymarket)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (33/1) (1% on Polymarket)

5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (50/1) (1% on Polymarket)

Who Will Win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another 

Who Should Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Supporting Actor 

1. Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value (+430) (20% on Polymarket)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (-320) (69% on Polymarket)

3. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (+750) (9% on Polymarket)

4. Benicia Del Toro, One Battle After Another (27/1) (2% on Polymarket)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (33/1)

Who Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value 

Who Should Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another (-1000) (95% on Polymarket)

2. Hamnet (+850) (4% on Polymarket)

3. Train Dreams (16/1)

4. Bugonia (22/1) 

5. Frankenstein (27/1)

Who Will Win: One Battle After Another 

Who Should Win: One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners (-1250) (96% on Polymarket)

2. Sentimental Value (22/1) (2% on Polymarket)

3. Marty Supreme (+900) (2% on Polymarket)

4. It Was Just An Accident (22/1)

5. Blue Moon (45/1)

Who Will Win: Sinners

Who Should Win: Marty Supreme 

Long Shot Bets that actually have a chance (DO NOT even bother with Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Director, or the Screenplay categories. It’s not happening. The other categories are more open.) 

• Best Actor: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (18/1)

• Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo, Sinners (+750) OR Stellan Skarsgaard (+430)

• Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (+210) or Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (+320)

Josh Segal

Why does Golf not have an Injury Report?

I still find it very interesting and preposterous that in professional golf, we don’t have an injury report every week that is public. Like every other professional sports organization, teams have to disclose if players have an injury and be specific about what it is. Teams also need to state how long a player is out for and what designation list they addd them too. For MLB, that could be the 10-Day DL, or in the NFL, it’s the IR (Injured Reserve) that you can be sidelined for at minimum four days.

I have been thinking a lot about this after Jake Knapp WD from the Arnold Palmer Invitational and we initially didn’t get a reason on why. It was later reported that Knapp WD due to an illness, however, Chris Powers from Golf Digest got the inside scoop on the real reason:

It turned out that Jake Knapp and his camp misled the media and the PGA Tour on the real reason why he WD from the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If this was any other major sports league like the NFL, NBA, and MLB, the team would have been fined for injury report misrepresentation.

In the NBA, the 76ers got fined in December for $100,000 for falsifying Embiid’s injury on the daily injury report. Similarly in the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens got fined for doing the same thing. If this is an occurring theme for teams, they can lose draft picks and players could potentially get suspended

I would love to see the Brian Rolapp regime come up with a system that players must disclose to the PGA Tour if they are battling through an injury and accurately report why they WD from a tournament. Obviously from a sports bettor perspective, you would want to know if a player you bet on is battling something and know if they aren’t 100%. I believe having more transparency on injuries, aside from the sports betting angle, would be a great addition to professional golf.

Bryan

Showdown Musings - Rules for Single-Round Strategy

General Notes/Round 1-3

I will group these together because the format is essentially the same: all you need is scoring birdies, streaks, avoiding bogeys, which is essentially the same as classic from a formatting standpoint for the first 3 rounds. You can talk to players who believe the edge is bigger in these rounds. For some, that may be true. I don’t necessarily see it that way. Round 1 in particular I don’t love at all unless there is a significant wave advantage and rarely play it unless I am truly in Degen mode and just want an extra sweat. It’s the one I recommend the least.

Personally my favorite thing lately in these cases (also applies to round 4) is to see who has 1) been a total faker with in tournament stats or 2) doing things in statistical areas that really don’t matter too much in a small sample size. I LOVE going after guys who murdered themselves with a water ball or bad chipping because none of that matters unless they're doing things you like to see on approach. I think that is less common than just hitting the guys who strictly are hitting approaches and not putting. To me, there is not much more than that for round 1-3 and it is pretty cut and dry.

Rounds 2 and 3 I will group together as they follow the same exact format as round 1. There is not much to add to this portion other than to say that you want guys who get hot rounds and spike with their irons and putting. You are not a member of this site for me to tell you that as you all do at this point. You can use Datagolf and see who isn’t making putts or who is shooting themselves in the foot off the tee or around the greens.

Round 4

I wanted to save most of the article to talk about this game because I like it the best and have had the most success in it. I mostly have been playing this round as of late pretty much exclusively. Round 4 I like most of all because of the finishing points and the way you can incorporate that into your lineups. Usually the leader is around 30-50% owned on the slate depending on the level of player and it’s because they have been assigned points to start off the slate. Generally speaking, if I were to make rules in these lineups while hand building or using an optimizer, I would want to limit the number of players I have inside my top 10 and MAYBE inside my top 20 if I am feeling the board could get a shake up. I believe many combinations that are owned inside the top 10 are too common and the assigned points increase ownership higher than it should.

These are quite easy to lose in the case where the lead is small and the leader is fragile. Take a look at r4 ownership next time we have a non signature event and you will laugh your ass off if you strictly play classic. Bad golfers can play tight on Sunday and get ownership simply because they have been assigned points due to previous run of play (that can be easily lost by the way). In many weeks, it is much easier to get elite players at low ownership that have ceilings to break the slate. I would much rather pay for a proven guy under the radar at t15 for more money and less ownership than the 7100 dollar guy who just shot a -6 to sit t3 before Sunday. I play aggressively fairly often and fade the leader. It is slate dependent and the lead size matters in that regard.

Shoutout to one of our staff members Bexico City and a ton of our ISN subscribers for hitting Ricky Cats (Ricky Castillo) 25-1 at the Puerto Rico Open. If you a subscriber to our content, you know that Ricky Cats is one of our favorite guys to talk about in the discord.