It was a great Valspar Championship week for our staff as multiple staff members had Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar. On our Wednesday Night Premium Show, Andy and Kyle both explained why they bet Fitzpatrick and are playing him in DFS, despite expected high ownership:

Let’s also keep in mind that in the two years since the over-seed, 2025 played 1.2 strokes easier than 2024, which is mainly because last year it was a lot softer than it was in 2024.

There was a lot more rain heading into that event than there was in 2024, the golf course was extremely receptive, and there was less wind last year as well. 2024 was my best week of the season, and we really leaned into driver/short game, but 2025 became more driver/putter with a higher greens in regulation percentage and more receptive conditions.

This week in Houston, I’m not seeing a lot of rain in the forecast. Right now, there doesn’t look like a ton of wind, but I would probably say that the scoring average probably falls somewhere between 2024 and 2025, I would go with a -0.5 average for now, but Steve will be back in action this week, so make sure to follow along in the Discord.

Overall, in the two years since the golf course has been over-seeded, there has been over a half-stroke advantage for being a long hitter verses a short hitter (which is absolutely massive.) Inaccurate players are 0.3 strokes better than their baseline on this course, which puts some data behind the Chris Gotterup statement that you can really drive it anywhere here.

The driver usage percentage increased by over 10% in 2024, and every player in the top 6 were among the longest players on Tour. In 2025, 7 of the top 8 were among some of the longest players on Tour, with Valimaki being the lone exception, who of course made up for it with his long iron play. The logic behind these numbers is what happens to the missed fairway penalty when the rough is shaved down and over-seeded.

These are moderately wide fairways, but the last two years, the missed fairway penalty has been just about the lowest on Tour, as has the rough penalty, and the fraction of penalty strokes is amongst the lowest on Tour too.

The Bermuda rough used to be enough of a challenge to trip some players up even though it was only 2.25 inches, and now it’s basically just what you see at Augusta and Quail Hollow—which essentially operates as a rough-less golf course. This has significantly de-valued the importance of accuracy, and significantly increased the importance and predictiveness of distance.

For the rest of Andy’s article, click here.

Off the tee DLF is penal and demanding. The fairways are on the narrower side at 30 yards wide and generally not too difficult to hit (mostly due to fewer drivers used) with an average driving accuracy of 66% over the past three years. But I think they would have the highest missed fairway penalty on tour. The Bermuda rough is thick and makes hitting the firm greens a challenge.

The fairway bunkers have vertical rivetted faces and are very deep at times. The 6th and 8th holes have water along the edge of the fairway, as do the layups on the 9th and 18th. But the main danger is the thick vegetation that lines the fairways and destroys rounds for anything more than the small misses and creates the claustrophobic feel. There is often 50 yards or less between what is essentially a hazard or lost ball on either side and priority one is keeping the ball in play off the tee.

DLF is very much a less-than-driver course. With keeping the ball in play so pivotal, players are often using a fairway wood or long iron for accuracy when driver would still be an option. The fairways also tend to pinch in, either with fairway bunkers or the rough/jungle and promote laying up into the shorter wider areas. Combined with some of the other holes that do almost force driver out of the players hands such as the 17th, mean that the driver usage rate for the field is estimated to be around 50%. There are also very few holes where distance is a large advantage, with the extra distance often only bringing more danger into play.

For the rest of Bexico’s article, click here.

I picked Justin Thomas last week at the Valspar Championship, who finished T30 and earned me a whopping $51,142. Not the finish I was looking for from JT but we move on to the Houston Open.

For the Houston Open, I am selecting Jake Knapp.

I don’t know if its just me, but Jake Knapp might get overlooked this week due to recency bias. He missed the cut at the Players, which I can forgive him with the nature of the TPC Sawgrass. Before the Players, he withdrew from the API with a back injury, however, from what I saw a the Players, it didn’t seem like his back giving him trouble

On paper, this is a great course for Jake Knapp. He is 5th in the field in strokes gained OTT (last 36 rounds), 13th in driving distance, and the best putter in the field (last 16 rounds). He was really finding something with his approach play before he lost 2.5 strokes per round at the Players.

I believe this is a great bounce back spot for Knapp and it seemed like he was the greatest thing since slice bread to start the year where he finished inside the top 11 in his five straight starts this year.

Speaking about where I think ownership will land, I am pretty confident that Min Woo Lee will be by far the most popular selection. I believe Brooks Koepka and Marco Penge will be up there to round out the top three. I have been trying my best to find low owned guys that I think have decent win equity. I believe Knapp certainly has enough win equity as he is 22/1 to win this event.

2026 OAD earnings: $3,411,570

2026 Masters is Wide Open

In the past couple of editions of the world's most famous golf tournament, we have seen the event dominated by the games best. Rory, Scottie, Rahm, DJ and Tiger have accounted for 6 of the last 7 Masters winners. All of them held the world #1 ranking at one point in their career and account for the vast majority that title over the past 25 years. 

I personally think that this year, we are not going to see The Masters won by a golfer that is a bonafide superstar that at one point topped the game of golf. There are simply so many question marks around the top players in the game at the moment. Scottie just WD from the Houston Open with the arrival of his second child, and has been not all there with his game in 2026. Rory McIlroy dealt with back issues at Bay Hill and had a very below average Players Championship, not to mention that defending champions at Augusta have not faired well at all. 

You can make strong cases for the two LIV Golfers, Bryson and Rahm heading into Augusta but I have serious concerns about the courses and events the two are playing in preparation for Augusta and serious doubts about Bryson’s Iron play. Ludvig has serious closing problems as seen at The Players and Collin Morikawa just dealt with a back injury. 

Sure there are some names not mentioned that posses top player in the world qualities but I think this years rendition is truly wide open. We have seen every other major produce surprise winners in the past 5 years. Phil at the PGA, JJ Spaun at the US Open and Brian Harman at the Open have won at triple digit odds in the past 5 years, can we see a longshot win at Augusta for the first time in forever? I think yes.

Josh Segal

Players Championship Hard Knocks

Brian Rolapp and company are certainly starting to put their fingerprints on the future of the PGA Tour, and it started last week giving the fans some cool content. Rolapp used his connections from his days in the NFL, hiring NFL Films to follow four players, Si Woo Kim, Chris Gotterup, Rickie Fowler, and Akshay Bhatia, around the Players Championship to give fans some behind the scenes footage of what it’s like inside the ropes of a high level PGA Tour event. 

I thought the video was absolutely incredible. The video was posted on YouTube, which is the second largest search engine in the world and where the younger generation spends most of their time, hoping to reach a new audience. 

The video really captured the players personalities on the golf course, primarily highlighting their interactions with their caddies and whoever they were paired with during the round. We saw the high and lows from playing in a tournament. All the players featured had their struggles during the tournament and it was really cool to see how the caddies try and get their players back in the right mindset. 

My favorite player caddie relationship was definitely Aksahy Bhatia and Joe Greiner. You quickly realize why Joe is considered one of the best caddies on tour and human beings in general. 

This one quote resonated with me a ton and it was when Joe said this to Akshay during one of the rounds, “Alright, I want you to be nice to yourself for the last four holes. Give yourself some grace”. These professional golfers are perfectionists and are so detail oriented. Golf is such an individual sport and very mental as we all know as weekend golfers. 

It was fascinating to see Joe and Akshay’s relationship on the golf course and Joe acting like a therapist to Akshay. He was giving Akshay advice and encouragement to keep fighting even though he didn’t have his best stuff.

Fans can relate a little bit to these players on how they were acting. None of the players were in contention and you can see them still throughout the round smile and crack jokes to each other, which can be relatable to fans who love to go out and play with their buddies. 

Overall, the video capturing what it’s like to be a PGA Tour player during the round was great and I hope to see more of this type of content, especially at the big events. I know we have Full Swing on Netflix that takes you behind the scenes of the Tour, but the video tells more of a story about certain players and a summary of the big moments of the given PGA Tour season. There’s room for both types of content and this is definitely a step forward to build a broader fanbase.

After Jupiter Links blew Game 1 of the TGL finals to LAGC, it was announced that Tiger would suit up for Jupiter Links and make his 2026 TGL debut. This was quite the surprise considering we have not seen Tiger play a professional golf tournament since the 2024 Open Championship and in TGL in roughly a year. 

The anticipation to see Tiger swing a golf club on national television was still real, even though it was in the SoFi Dome, hitting into a big simulator screen and putting on turf. Jupiter Links would go on to get blown out and lose the championship, however, we did get some cool moments from Tiger. 

On TGL’s most recognizable hole, The Stinger, Tiger hit one of the best shots we have seen on the hole all year, looking like prime Tiger hitting a low drive stinger.

I have had mixed emotions about Tiger’s appearances over the last couple years out on the golf course, however, it’s still really exciting to see Tiger play in the TGL matches with low stakes and in a fun environment. 

Now let’s transition to the Masters, as everyone is speculating if Tiger will make his long awaited return to Augusta National? 

If you open the Masters app (we are so back), he is currently labeled in the field and says this in his bio:

This is quite interesting and I'm not sure what to fully make of it. Tiger is a past champion so technically he is always in the field until further notice. Do we think that Tiger has already notified Augusta National that he is playing which prompted them to put him in the field and he is waiting to announce it in the coming days? It's possible, but it would be hard for me to think that Augsuta National would just put Tiger in the field without knowing something. They don’t seem like an organization to clickbait and drive engagement putting Tiger in the field without his cosign. 

It’s just still hard for me to believe that Tiger is going to suit up and walk Augusta National, coming off an achilles tear in early 2025 and back surgery back in October. It’s been hard to see him play back in 2024 considering that walking a golf course clearly takes a toll on his body. You just have to accept that Tiger is a ceremonial golfer at this point in his career. Many have already accepted this but obviously some will have hope that he can play more frequently. 

It's downright corrupt that DraftKings has Tiger Woods at 150-1 to win the Masters. Who the heck is betting Tiger at that number or even in general to win the Masters when he hasn’t played in a professional tournament in roughly two years? Crazy world we live in these days with odds and prediction markets. 

Speaking of prediction markets, you can bet if Tiger will play in the Masters. As it stands Tuesday night, Tiger Woods has a 71% chance to play in the Masters. 

My gut says that Tiger will try and suit up. It's also certainly in the realm of possibilities that Tiger is on the grounds this week practicing and planning to play, but then something last second doesn’t feel right and withdraws. It will be fascinating, however, not sure how excited I will be to see Tiger limp around Augusta National. I say that now, but when it comes to Thursday morning and Tiger is about to tee off, I am sure my stance will change and will be glued to my TV.

Congrats to Andy, Kyle, Josh, Bryan, and Bexico City for hitting Matt Fitzpatrick at the Valspar Championship. We had a number of subscribers also hit Fitzpatrick too. Our communitiy has been very high on Fitzpatrick this year so its great to get back to back community wins.