Week 12: Valspar Championship

Breaking down the Valspar, Josh recaps his Players experience, and Rishi/Joey give some March Madness picks

Weekly Content Schedule

Re-Watchables

In case you missed it, here are the YouTube links to re-watch any of our shows or if you need to listen for the first time:

Sunday

Monday

Inside Golf Podcast: Live DFS Show

Tuesday

Wednesday

Inside Golf Podcast: Insiders Only Premium DFS Show

Statistical Spotlight: Strokes Gained in Windy Conditions

This week at the Valspar Championship, we are anticipating some high winds Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. This could lead to a clear wave advantage for golfers who tee-off AM/PM.

Our friends over at Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole have done a great job identifying golfers who have played well in windy conditions in their career. Ron Klos of Betsperts Golf got a shoutout on twitter from Brandel Chamblee and on Golf Channel’s “Live From The Players” crew when talking to Rory about his Players win.

Over the last 75 rounds, here are the top 10 golfers in the field who have gained the most strokes in windy conditions:

(via Betsperts Golf)

Player Profile: Daniel Berger

(via Boston Globe)

Andy Lack

On a week where I would accept all different types of statistical arguments, riding with my guys still feels the most natural approach. I’ve been on Daniel Berger quite a bit this season, and while he has been an incredibly profitable top-20 bet, he has yet to break through with a victory. Innisbrook is another golf course that should fit his eye well. It’s not entirely dissimilar from TPC Sawgrass off the tee, and it may even have more in common with TPC Southwind, where Berger has two victories. He continues to drive the ball incredibly straight, and while his approach play faltered down the stretch at the Players, Berger has now finished top-25 in all three Florida swing events, while he continues to gain more confidence with the putter.

One and Done: Shane Lowry

(via SBNation)

I don’t personally anticipate using Lowry at a signature event for the rest of the year. You can make the case to save him for the Open Championship at Royal Portrush, where he won the Claret Jug in 2019. 

I like the course fit at Copperhead for Lowry this week. He is very accurate OTT, one of the best long iron players in the field, and elevates his game in windy conditions. Lowry is coming off gaining 2.16 strokes T2G at the Players Championship last week. He has had a great 2025 season so far with four top 20 or better finishes, with his best finish placing 2nd at Pebble Beach. His best finish at the Valspar was in 2022, where he finished T12. 

If you have already used Shane Lowry, I would pivot to Tommy Fleetwood. If you don’t want to take chalk, I would pivot to Will Zalatoris. Is Zalatoris back????

Closing Stretch

Josh Segal

My Players Experience

Last week, I took a trip down to Ponte Vedra Beach to visit a friend who recently moved to the area and to attend the Players Championship. My friend lives roughly three miles from TPC Sawgrass, so it was a no brainer to make the trek from New York City. 

From talking with friends in the golf community and within our discord about the Players Championship, my expectations were pretty high on attending the tournament, and man, did it live up to the hype!

Let’s talk about the course first. TPC Sawgrass was specifically designed to host a tournament, as the PGA Tour owns the property. It was very easy to get around the course and it didn’t feel like you had to walk far to get to certain holes.

Around most of the greens are some hills that don’t really come into play for the professionals. These hills are designed for people to stand and sit on so you don’t have to try and watch over people. This allows for spectators to find a comfortable place to watch while not having to nudge through people to get a better view.

The coolest part of the course is certainly the 16th and 17th holes. What makes it so cool is if you are hanging around the 16th green or the 17th hole area, which I parked myself for plenty of time while spectating, you get to see how both holes play out. 

It’s intriguing to watch the players on the 16th peak over at the 17th across the water to see what players are doing and how the hole is playing. For example, I saw JJ Spaun peak over at Alex Smalley’s water ball on the island green. 

The energy and intensity that both holes possess and create on the grounds was unmatched. I was even fortunate enough to be on the 16th hole on Thursday with our own Boston Capper and saw Jordan Spieth chip in on Thursday morning. 

If you get the opportunity, I highly recommend making a trip to the Playes, and I would suggest going Wednesday and Thursday. I wrote earlier this year that I prefer going to practice rounds over tournament rounds because there are less people so it's easier to get around the course and take it all in. 

Each day is pretty packed with people, but from my discussions with others on the grounds and watching on TV, Thursday was less crowded than Friday. My friends and I were able to grab a spot on the hill on the 17th, and while watching on Friday, you couldn't see a touch of grass on the same hill. People are more willing to take off work on Friday than Thursday. 

Over the last couple of years, the Players Championship has produced thrilling finishes with elite players taking home the trophy. The Players Championship has been the best tournament I have been to and it surely won’t be my last that I attend.

Rishi Loungani

Rishi’s March Madness Picks

(via Auburn Wire - USA Today)

NCAA Champion: Auburn

Best team for most of the year with Broome. The Tigers have slowed down over the last month or som but some into the tournament well rested and mostly healthy. I don’t want to get cute here.

Favorite First Round Upset: UCSD over Michigan

Surprise Team Who Will Fall Short Early: St. John’s

Cinderella Squad: Xavier

Favorite Bet: Xavier 120/1 to the Final Four

WNCAAB Champion: Notre Dame 

Joey Molisani

Joey’s March Madness Picks

(via Fox 26)

NCAA Champion: Houston

3 points and defense. I love Cryer and Sharp. Houston is a little under the radar compared to Florida, Duke, and Auburn

Favorite First Round Upset: Yale over Texas A&M

Surprise Team Who Will Fall Short Early: Auburn

I want to say this one, that this is my leverage play. I love Louisville and this is a great get different spot. Auburn absolutely could win the tourney.

Cinderella Squad: Akron

Could get blown out by 30 or could make the Sweet 16.

Favorite Bet: Drake +6.5

WNCAAB Champion: USC

Flex of the Week

Shoutout to our very own Coby Dubose for hitting on another Rory outright ticket. Earlier in the year, Coby hit on Rory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Shoutout to all the other Rory backers in the DFS and Outright markets!

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