Golf architect Tom Doak was hired in 2019 to make some significant changes to Memorial Park, host of the Houston Open this week. Doak added short Bermuda grass around his unique green complexes rather than the ordinary thick rough we see out on the PGA Tour week in and week out. We have seen the likes of Rory and Scottie commit to this event as a way to prepare for the Masters, with the addition to the course being overseed. 

In the Rabbit Hole, you can filter for scrambling percentage on short grass. Here are the top 10 players in the field who lead in this category:

Take it for what you will, but Stephan Jaeger was my player profile last year, so hopefully we can keep the good vibes rolling with another bomber off the tee in strong form who can also heat up on and around the greens. Thompson is the quintessential Memorial Park player. He bombs the ball off the tee, ranking seventh in recent off the tee play, 37th in carry distance, and third off the tee on driver-heavy golf courses with a low missed fairway penalty.

The reigning John Deere Classic champion (we hit him there too!) also ranks top-20 in this field in overall recent around-the-green play and scrambling from the short grass. He utilized this Bomber-Short Game prototype to finish 21st at Memorial Park last year, gaining significantly in those two categories. Even more encouraging is the recent form, as Thompson is coming off a 10th-place finish at TPC Sawgrass, a golf course that is a far worse fit for his skill-set than Memorial Park. Approach play is generally one of the weaker aspects of Thompson’s game, but he has now gained strokes on approach in four straight starts, and his prowess off the tee and around the greens hasn’t suffered either.

I’m calling my shot once again. Davis Thompson is your 2025 Houston Open winner.

MWL is a great course fit at Memorial Park being long off-the-tee, elite short game, and being a great putter. In his career, MWL has played well in tough scoring conditions like major championships and the Players. As of now, the forecast is calling for some rain and wind, which sets up perfectly for him. Memorial Park will require players to hit a ton of long iron shots, which isn’t MWL’s strong suit, but we have seen historically that popping on approach isn’t necessary as a path to win here. 

If you have used MWL already, I would suggest taking Davis Thompson or Taylor Pendrith, two guys I am very high on and have made my betting card. Let’s stay hot!

The TGL Championship between Atlanta Drive GC and New York Golf Club was everything and more that Tiger, Rory, and the rest of the TMRW Sports team imagined. Both games 1 and 2 came right down to the wire and the SoFi Center was humming, feeding off the energy from the players. 

The MVP of the TGL Championship was Billy Ho, who stole the show in both games.

In the game 1, Billy Ho made an eagle hammer putt on hole 11 to tie the match at 4. In case you missed it, here was the putt:

That moment gave Atlanta Drive all the momentum to close out the match on the last hole, with Patrick Cantlay outlasting his best friend Xander Schauffele.

Game 2 started off a little slow with both teams not being to drain any putts to win holes. NYGC started the scoring towards the end of the triples session, but Atlanta started to turn it on in singles.

Going into hole 14, NYGC was up 3-2 on Atlanta. Atlanta made the best decision of the night to hammer the hole and giving a chance to Billy Ho to drain a putt to take the lead:

Billy Ho put on a show for the fans with his hot putter on the greens and his crazy celebrations. He even called out some fans who were rooting against him after he made that match altering putt in game 1.

The TGL had its ups and downs this year, but they listened to the fans and made much needed adjustments to make the product better. The new hammer rules changed everything, which created more strategy from teams that were captured on the hot mics. I believe players got more and more comfortable playing inside the SoFi Center and being entertainers.

It will be interesting to see what changes TGL makes for next season. Will they implement new rules? Will the league expand? Will some players be asked to leave due to others wanting to join?

Overall, I enjoyed the TGL and excited for what next season has in store.

On Tap In Birdie this week, Brian Kirschner mentioned that we might be due for a longshot Masters winner this year. His comment convinced me to go do some research on what the odds were of some of the past champions. Here is a list of the last nine winners:

2024: Scottie Scheffler +450

2023: Jon Rahm +900

2022: Scottie Scheffler +1600

2021: Hideki Matsuyama +4600

2020: Dustin Johnson +850

2019: Tiger Woods +1400

2018: Patrick Reed +5000

2017: Sergio Garcia +3000

2016: Danny Willet +5000

On one hand, it’s not a surprise that we haven’t seen a longer shot winner since Hideki Matsuyama in 2021. Augusta National tests all facets of your game and it’s not a course where you can just luckbox your way to a green jacket. You need to have your A game stepping onto the property Monday morning. 

On the other hand, you would think we would have a year where someone out of the blue would win one of these years?

Obviously Scottie Scheffler has been undoubtedly the best player in the world over the last three seasons and Augusta National is one of the best courses for his skill set. In 2023, Jon Rahm won twice before winning his first green jacket and second major of his career. 

If there is ever a year for a longshot winner, it’s this year due to a lot of question marks from some of the top players.

Since returning from his hand injury, Scheffler doesn’t look like his usual self. I know Rory is rounding into form after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM and the Players Championship, but can’t confidently say he will get over the hump? 

Morikawa hasn’t been able to close on a Sunday in forever. Ludvig Aberg is coming off a top 5 finish at the Masters last year in his first start. Can he perform up to the hype he will get going into the week. 

Finally, we really haven’t seen Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Brooks Koepka play a ton of golf on LIV. I guess we shall see how they play at LIV Miami and Trump Doral. 

With a lot of questions being asked about the big names at the top of the odds board, this might be a year for a longshot. The next question is, what longshot will make a run at the green jacket? We still got 2 weeks to figure it out!

With the Masters now just two weeks away, I decided to run the numbers and put out some valuations for the season’s first major. This is simply my fair market value on the player, with two weeks left to go. This is not a power ranking of who I think is most likely to win the Masters, but rather of where the market should and will be with each player. How Rory McIIroy and Scottie Scheffler perform this week in Houston could certainly impact the final numbers, but this is how I would personally assess the Masters board with two weeks left to spare. Let’s run through all 40 players I expect to settle below 150/1.

1. Scottie Scheffler (5/1)

2. Rory McIlroy (+750)

3. Jon Rahm (16/1)

4. Collin Morikawa (16/1)

5. Xander Schauffele (18/1)

6. Ludvig Aberg (22/1)

7. Bryson DeChambeau (24/1)

8. Justin Thomas (25/1)

9. Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)

10. Joaquin Niemann (30/1)

11. Brooks Koepka (33/1)

12. Viktor Hovland (35/1)

13. Patrick Cantlay (35/1)

14. Jordan Spieth (35/1)

15. Tommy Fleetwood (38/1)

16. Tyrrell Hatton (40/1)

17. Will Zalatoris (45/1)

18. Russell Henley (50/1)

19. Shane Lowry (60/1)

20. Cameron Smith (75/1)

21. Sepp Straka (75/1)

22. Tony Finau (80/1)

23. Jason Day (80/1)

24. Corey Conners (85/1)

25. Sungjae Im (85/1)

26. Tom Kim (85/1)

27. Wyndham Clark (90/1)

28. Akshay Bhatia (100/1)

29. Dustin Johnson (100/1)

30. Sahith Theegala (100/1)

31. Min Woo Lee (110/1)

32. Maverick McNealy (110/1)

33. Patrick Reed (120/1)

34. Sam Burns (120/1)

35. Sergio Garcia (125/1)

36. Keegan Bradley (125/1)

37. Adam Scott (130/1)

38. Matt Fitzpatrick (140/1)

39. Davis Thompson (140/1)

40. Cameron Young (150/1)