Week 18: CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Breaking down our new Live Odds Board feature, Joe Greiner and Collin Morikawa unite, Michael Block's quest for another PGA Championship bid, and our content recap.

Weekly Content Schedule

Re-Watchables

In case you missed it, here are the YouTube links to re-watch any of our shows or if you need to listen for the first time:

Sunday

Monday

Inside Golf Podcast: Live DFS Show

Tuesday

Hold The Green: Byron Nelson Best Bets

Wednesday

Inside Golf Podcast: Insiders Only Premium DFS Show

Statistical Spotlight: SG Approach on Long Golf Courses

TPC Craig Ranch added five new tee boxes to lengthen the golf course. Our projections don’t believe this will have much impact to scoring because players should still be able to hit greens in regulation at the continued high clip. However with the course changes, players will be asked to hit more long irons.

On the Rabbit Hole, you can easily find which players are the best iron players from certain proximity buckets like 200+ yards. After going through all the filters, I found that you can identify how players have hit there irons on long golf courses.

Over the last two years, with a minimum of 50 rounds, here are the top 10 players in the field who gained the most strokes from approach on long golf courses:

Player Profile: Sami Valimaki

(via Golfweek - USA Today)

I had to do a double take when I saw just how well that Sami Valimaki was hitting his irons right now. The Finland native has now gained over three strokes on approach in his last five measured starts. Prior to missing the cut on the number at the Zurich Classic alongside Ben Silverman, Valimaki finished 18th at the Signature RBC Heritage, where he gained 3.2 strokes on approach and 3.2 strokes putting.

That’s the exact formula that I’m looking for this week. Harbour Town was never going to be a great fit for Valimaki, and he should be way more comfortable in Dallas where he can bomb away off the tee and rely on the strength of his long irons and putter.

I have already written extensively about how long iron play and putting are the two strongest keys to success at TPC Craig Ranch, and Valimaki is the only player in this field to rank top-10 in both proximity from 200 yards-plus and putting from five to 15 feet. He is also the only player outside of Alejandro Tosti and Stephan Jaeger to record top-10 finishes at both Memorial Park and Vidanta Vallarta, my two strongest comp courses for this week. I haven’t felt this strongly about a course fit over 100/1 in quite some time. Why not us?

One and Done: Stephan Jaeger

(via Orange County Register)

After taking last week off from OAD for the Zurich Classic, we are back to continue our hot streak at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

Just looking at the odds board, it’s a weird week for OAD with Scheffler being the heavy favorite at sub +300, with Jordan Spieth being around +1800 as the next favorite.

Andy noted in his course preview that players on average hit driver off-the-tee 76.5% of the time at TPC Craig Ranch. That’s the highest driver usage percentage at one of the PGA Tour stops. When I read that statistic, along with TPC Craig Ranch having little to no missed fairway penalty, I thought of Stephan Jaeger.

As noted above, Jaeger has played well at Memorial Park and Vidanta Vallarta where it’s all bombs away off-the-tee. Additionally, Jaeger has been trending well with his irons, as he ranks 12th in the field in strokes gained on approach. Finally, Jaeger has a high birdie or better percentage and ranks 7th in strokes gained total on easy scoring conditions.

If you have already selected Stephan Jaeger this year, I would look to take the defending champion Taylor Pendrith.

Closing Stretch

Andy Lack

ISN’s New Live Odds Board Feature

I am proud to announce a new members only tool, that was solely made possible by the great Tyler Martin, who I would love for you all to welcome as a valued member of our team who will continue to help us with social content, as well as operate and make updates to this tool. 

The goal with Inside Sports Network is that this eventually becomes your one stop shop for everything betting and DFS related.

I noticed that there was a lot of conversation in the discord about market movement but that it was all a lot of conjecture and that it would be highly conducive and helpful to subs if they had a tool to actually measure this.

Live now for members only is our new LIVE ODDS SCREEN, and we will make four major updates to this on the exact same cadence as ownership: Opening odds on Monday morning, Tuesday early afternoon, Wednesday morning, and Wednesday evening before our premium show.

You can now also aggregate the biggest nukes via our "Nuke meter”, as well as how Bookmaker odds compare to the big main local book (BetOnline), as well as the two main legal books (DraftKings and FanDuel), which should be incredibly conducive to price shopping.

This feature has been in the works for a while and we are so proud at ISN of how it turned out. We believe that this will give insiders an easier understanding of what players are popular bets during a given week and who is potentially being slept on. Getting the best odds on your outright card can go a long way and this is the best place to look in the industry!

Don’t be shy to let us know your feedback on the Live Odds Board in the discord!

Josh Segal

Joe Greiner Has A New Home

It was reported earlier yesterday by Colt Knost that PGA Tour caddie Joe Greiner has found a new full-time gig after parting ways with his longtime best friend Max Homa.

It turned out to be a two-time major champion.

His name is Collin Morikawa.

It has been a whirlwind of a 2025 year for Joe Greiner, who will now be on his third PGA Tour bag. After being paired for 10+ years with Max Homa up until this years Masters, Joe was hired to fill in for Justin Thomas’s caddie Matt Minister at the Masters and the RBC Heritage.

After almost three years without a PGA Tour win, Justin Thomas broke his winless streak at the RBC Heritage. This caused much debate in the online golf community about if Justin Thomas should keep Joe on his bag full-time. Whatever Joe did to help JT get the the monkey off his back, it worked.

(via Golf Monthly)

After JT announced he is keeping Matt Minister on his bag, Collin Morikawa took advantage of caddie free agency and signed Joe Greiner.

I found this news shocking that Collin Morikawa would split with his longtime caddie J.J. Jakovac. The two have had much success since Morikawa turned professional back in 2019. Here is there resume of wins together:

  • 2019 Barracuda Championship

  • 2020 Workday Charity Open

  • 2020 PGA Championship

  • 2021 WGC-Workday Championship

  • 2021 Open Championship

  • 2023 Zozo Championship

(via Fox News)

As you can see, Morikawa and Jakovac had a ton of success early in his career. Morikawa hasn’t been able to get back into the winners circle since 2023, which has caused criticism due to his Sunday collapse’s over the years.

With Morikawa’s gripe with the media, we might not get the true answer on why he decided to go his separate ways from Jakovac.

My gut believes that Morikawa thought a change was needed and wanted to seize the opportunity to sign his friend. It’s no secret that Morikawa and Homa are very close friends, being both from LA and went to Cal for school. Morikawa and Greiner’s relationship through Homa certainly played a factor.

Can Joe Greiner help Morikawa get a much needed win like he did with Justin Thomas?

We shall see how they perform at the Truist Championship and the PGA Championship in the coming weeks.

Will Blockie Qualify for the PGA Championship Again?

Michael Block has the chance to clinch his third straight PGA Championship appearance at the PGA Professional Championship this week. You might ask what is the PGA Professional Championship?

It’s a four-day, 72-hole tournament, featuring the top PGA Professionals who secured their spots in the final qualifier through local and state events. This year, the tournament is held at PGA Golf Club in Port St Lucie, Florida. The top 20 golfers will go on to receive an invite to the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in a couple weeks.

As it stands right now, PGA Professional and Good Good athlete Michael Block is inside the top 20 going into round 4 today. Will he earn a spot at the PGA Championship and reunite with his best buddy Rory, who is coming off capturing the career grand slam?

(via Winnipeg Free Press)

Flex of the Week

If you aren’t familiar yet, ISN isn’t providing just golf content. Our very own Rishi has been killing it with tennis plays and providing DFS strategy to our subscribers.

The French Open is right around the corner. If you are a tennis savant or want to learn more about tennis handicapping, our discord is the place to be!

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