I don’t believe we have highlighted an around-the-green statistic yet this year in our statistical spotlight segment. If there’s any week to do it, it’s at Muirfield Village, host of Jack Nicklaus’s tournament.

Out of all the PGA Tour stops, Muirfield Village ranks as the fourth most difficult around-the-green test for players. One of the reasons that this is the case is because the green in regulation percentage is historically one of the lowest on the schedule. Over the years, we have seen players be able to separate themselves from the field strictly on their elite around-the-green play.

Jack Nicklaus has chosen to test the fields have thick rough around his greens. On the Rabbit Hole, you can filter specifically for how have players performed on thick rough.

Over the last 50 rounds, here are the top 12 players in the field who have gained the most strokes around-the-green from thick rough:

​We were successfully early on Tony Finau. If people hop on this week, they were late. We got there first, and took a chance on him when he was at his market bottom. It paid dividends at both the Truist and PGA Championship. We are still buying Tony on a market upswing this week at the Memorial, as I believe he is in for a big summer and his price will keep climbing.

Muirfield Village is a near perfect course for Finau as it is one of the least important putting tests on the PGA Tour. The lack of importance on the greens at Memorial is made up for around the greens, and Finau has one of the best short games on Tour, particularly out of thick rough.

The controversial father of many is also starting to flush his irons again, and coming off a +5.8 approach week at Quail Hollow, another long iron-intensive golf course. Finau will need to hit just as many middle to long irons at Memorial, and his short game should pick up the slack on the occasional missed green. I genuinely believe Finau has the upside to win this event based on the way he is hitting it right now, and Muirfield Village is the ideal course fit for the facets of Finau’s game that are all trending positively.

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Xander Schauffele had a slow start to the 2025 season after being sidelined for some time with a rib injury. As expected, he started off a little rusty when he immediately made his return. However, over the last month or so, Xander has been getting close to his usual self.

In his last five starts, Xander has finished inside the top 30 in all of them, including a T8 at the Masters and a T11 at the Truist Championship. With the Memorial being a true tee-to-green test for the professionals this week, Xander has gained positive strokes from tee-to-green in his last five starts.

Additionally, Muirfield Village is a very long golf course, with a ton of thick rough on property to punish the golfers for missing fairways and greens. Xander ranks third in the field in strokes gained off-the-tee and on approach on long, thick rough golf courses.

Xander has some of the best course history at Muirfield Village in the field, even without a win to show for. I believe this is a great spot for Xander to contend on Sunday.

If you have already used Xander, I would look to use Ludvig Aberg or Viktor Hovland. Both guys are elite ball strikers and historically play well on these types of tracks.

This question has sparked much debate in the golf community on twitter and on some of the popular podcasts in the space. It’s a really fun and ridiculous debate because it’s nearly impossible to set a realistic line. 

Who knows how long Scheffler can keep up his stellar play? How long can he stay healthy over the course of his career?

These types of questions are entertaining to debate over a couple beers with your friends at your local bar for happy hour. 

For those who aren’t counting at home, Scheffler won Masters in both 2022 and 2024, and he’s coming off winning the 2025 PGA Championship. I will save you the time of doing mental math and tell you that Scottie Scheffler has three majors championships to his name.

On Tap In Birdie this week, BK asked this exact question to Kyle. Kyle said if he was a bookie, he would set the over under at 6.5 majors. BK countered and stated he would set the line at 7.5 majors. 

I do agree with BK that I would set the over under for majors Scottie Scheffler wins in his career at 7.5.

You have to think that Scheffler will win two more green jackets when it's all said and done. He has a massive advantage that his most successful major so far in his career is at the major that never rotates its venue. He was defending champion this year and finished quietly inside the top 5, without many taking note.

The current state of Scheffler’s game sets up exceptionally well for the type of golf courses that the PGA of America and USGA select as their hosts. These organizations choose courses that are long and difficult off-the-tee, ask players to hit a ton of long iron shots, and usually contains thick rough around-the-green.

In my opinion, The Open Championship is the trickiest one to predict due to the variability with weather and the different style of play that is required across the pond. It has already given Scheffler the most trouble in his career for the reasons already stated.

I thought I would share some context on how many players have won X amount of majors:

• 14 players have won at least 6 majors. 

• 11 players have won at least 7 majors. 

• 6 players have won at least 8 majors. 

• 5 players have won at least 9 majors. 

People underestimate how hard it is to win major championships. Just ask Rory McIIroy over the last 10 years and Phil Mickelson before he turned 30 years old.

With the way that Scheffler is playing right now, the sky is the limit. However, every golfer goes through hurdles with their swing, body, and potential off the course distractions.

How long can Scheffler keep up his impressive run?

Only time will tell.

I don’t know if it’s just me, but the Memorial is lacking some buzz this week. The major storyline this week has been the absence of Rory McIIroy. He is skipping his third signature event of the year and couldn’t even find muster up the courage to give Jack Nicklaus a personal phone call to share his decision.

After both Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm were in the mix at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago, I wish they were back on the PGA Tour playing this week. 

Their presence would provide some needed buzz to one of the best events of the year at Muirfield Village.

It’s no secret that both DeChambeau and Rahm are two of the biggest names in the sport. Both players wear their heart on their sleeve and are great characters for TV purposes. I almost forgot to even mention that DeChambeau is arguably the 3rd best player in the world and that Rahm is trending towards his elite form before he left for LIV. 

Looking at the odds board, Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite at +280. The next two players on the odds board are both Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa at 16-1. 

If DeChambeau and Rahm were both in the field, they would be the 2nd and 3rd favorite in the field. DeChambeau won this tournament back in 2018 and Rahm won in 2020 (should of won in 2021 but he got Covid).

With how special the Memorial Tournament is with the great Jack and Barbara Nicklaus as gracious hosts, it’s unfortunate this week has felt lackluster. I love Muirfield Village as a golf course and super excited to watch this week. Let’s just hope Scottie Scheffler doesn’t run away with it.

Stock Down 📉

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR)- Personally I do not love the player, especially someone who is a consensus top five rookie pick. I understand everyone fawning over the size and length but I see a lack of separation that I do not think pairs well with Bryce Young’s skill set. I see him more of a Treylon Burks opposed to a Mike Evans. I think McMillan’s ceiling is Mike Williams, but wouldn’t shock me if he was more Kelvin Benjamin in terms of career trajectory. I’m treating him as a bust in all drafts and will be a complete fade on him.

Ashton Jeanty (LV)- Listen, I get it, Jeanty is the hands-down 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts. I’m not going to argue with that. But it’s also not going to be me who takes him. I have concerns about Jeanty against top-tier competition with a subpar Raiders O-line. Pete Carroll is still coaching in the 1980s, which is good for Jeanty on sheer volume; however, I can see a very limited YPC. The best value is trading out of 1.01 for the king’s ransom you can get. In my dynasty league the 1.01 spot was offered a top 5 pick this year, a 2026 first-rounder, and another player. That’s what I would be looking for. I also think Omarion Hampton is in a better spot and will out produce Jeanty over his career.

Stock Up 📈

Luther Burden III (CHI)- If you asked me today the one guy I am going to target in every draft, it’s Luther Burden. Before the draft Burden was a No. 1 WR, and he ended up in Chicago in a spot with Ben Johnson that I absolutely love. I’m not a huge Rome Odunze fan, and I think Burden is the better dynasty option. Burden may get out to a slow start, but Burden could be the best WR of this class by Year 2 or 3, and given his current ADP of 10-15, he is an absolute steal.

Emeka Egbuka (TB)- Another guy fighting for targets in an offense that has big play potential. I love what Egbuke brings to the table. I do not love the immediate fit with him, Godwin and Evans, but both players ahead of him on the depth chart are injury risks and I can see a very good role being carved out for him each week. Let’s not forget this is an offense that made Russell Gage, Jalen McMillan, and Trey Palmer fantasy relevant. According to Fantasy Pros, Egbuka is the No. 7-ranked player -- top 5 upside with a pretty safe floor. Give me some Egbuka.

Late Round Sleeper

Ollie Gordon II (MIA)- As a die-hard Miami Dolphins fan I love this pick. I was super high on Gordon and getting him so late in the draft as the perfect complement to Achane and Wright is intriguing. Everyone in the industry is writing Gordon off even after a spectacular 2023 season which resulted in him winning the Doak Walker award. I’m not super bullish on the Dolphins this year but I am long term as they continue to build up that offensive line. Mike McDaniel will fix this run game, and I want a piece of it.

Top 10 Dynasty Rookie Rankings (PPR non Superflex)

1. Ashton Jeanty (let someone else take him)

2. Omarion Hampton (LOVE)

3. Luther Burden (so in on Burden its unhealthy)

4. Emeka Egbuka (another Love)

5. TreVeyon Henderson (Vrabel RB O-Line concerns)

6. Travis Hunter (Still think BTJ is WR1)

7. Matthew Golden (Don’t love the player but like the scheme fit)

8. Jack Bech (sneaky good player with team fit)

9. Tre Harris (Intriguing upside)

10. Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland is a dumpster fire, really love Sampson later)

RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson- I’m not super high on either player, waiting to see what comes out of camp and preseason.