PGA National, host of the Cognizant Classic, features 26 water hazards on 15 of the 18 holes on the golf course. This will result in players being forced to hit to certain spots and possess a conservative strategy. I agree with Andy that this type of golf the course is asking players to play lacks variety and excitement.

With the abundance of water hazards this week, we want to identify who has played well on these type of courses. Here are the top 10 players in the field who average the most strokes gained on water heavy courses:

Russell Henley is quite comfortable at PGA National. The picture above is from 2014 when he won the Honda Classic. I prefer to play Russell Henley on golf courses where players are forced to club down off-the-tee, meaning players will not be hitting a ton of drivers.

Additionally, Henley is one of the best middle iron players and putters in the field, skills that are crucial for success at PGA National. On the Rabbit Hole, Henley ranks 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green on water heavy courses and 5th in strokes gained in Florida.

Henley has been very kind to us over the last year. I believe he is due for his first win since the 2022 World Wide Technology Championship.

Straka has been one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour so far this year. His resume in 2025 consists of a win at the American Express, along with three T15 or better finishes. He has gained at least 1.12 strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, ranking him 7th in the field on approach over the last 36 rounds. To top his case off for being your OAD pick this week, his Cognizant/Honda Classic tournament history is some of the best in the field, hoisting the trophy in 2022 and finishing T5 in 2023.

I am projecting Straka to crack the top four in ownership this week. I like Min Woo Lee as a potential selection to be different if you feel inclined. I don’t think you need to start playing position this early in the year. Just go with your gut and take your guy!

There are plenty of things we as fans and gamblers of the PGA Tour can gripe about. One very popular grievance is the way we consume it. From excessive commercial loads to sleepy announcing teams, it seems as though one of the last remaining uniting fronts in America is our disdain for professional golf coverage in 2025.

But one shining beacon in the mundane golf coverage we absorb for 40+ weeks a year is the existence of PGA Tour Live. While the broadcast itself is certainly not perfect and it is evident that it too is seeing budgetary constraints that deteriorate production quality, it’s at least better than nothing. And it provides us corporate lackeys the opportunity to accompany our TPS reports with the sweet mellow tones of Craig Perks or the southern drawl of John Maginnes calling early-round action on weekdays.

Generally, I don’t have a lot of complaints about PGA Tour Live. I’m just happy to have live golf on my screen. But when asked what my biggest pet peeve about PGA Tour Live is, it is how they set their featured group coverage -- particularly for the lower-profile non-elevated events.

Too often in low-tier events are we forced to watch golfers who either are squeezing every ounce of their 15 minutes of fame or who was a big name a decade ago and are clinging to dear life to maintain status. This is what the PGA Tour, particularly in weak fields, feels its audience wants. It feels that by jamming the likes of (no offense) Brandt Snedeker, a golfer whose name carried a lot of clout a decade ago but has fewer Top 10s over the last four years than the number of children I have brought into the world, is what will help attract casual viewers perusing ESPN+ on a Thursday morning to tune into the action.

Which brings me to the Thursday AM featured groups of last week’s Mexico Open. It’s a down week for PGA Tour standards in terms of field strength. A bare cupboard of adequate candidates to appear on PGA Tour Live. Yet at least in our gambling circles, it was full of all the loveable losers we race to burn money on every single week. The Kevin Yu’s. The Harry Hall’s. The Alex Smalley’s. Surely the field was so rotten that a few of these guys would sneak into Thursday morning featured groups. It would be much easier tracking their successes and failures on our television screens than having to live and die every 12 minutes through ShotLink Updates.

Instead, this was our Thursday AM offering:

• Joel Dahmen/Chan Kim/Taylor Montgomery

• Matt McCarty/Davis Riley/Emiliano Grillo

• Patton Kizzire/Kurt Kitayama/Francesco Molinari

Now, credit where credit is due. Joel Dahmen was a rock star at the Mexico Open and balled out. Even Francesco Molinari crawled out of his grave next to Rae’s Creek and showed some moments of friskiness. And Kurt Kitayama certainly qualifies as one of our bums who, this week at least, decided to be extra bummy.

But please, PGA Tour, who exactly is clamoring to watch the late-stage career of Emiliano Grillo, a golfer who hasn’t finished better than T65 in any event this season? Or the rotting husks of Taylor Montgomery and Davis Riley, players clearly struggling with their game and probably don’t appreciate us watching every single gory detail as they search for it. Or Chan Kim, a mildly popular pick last week but let’s be honest – can anyone name three notable contributions he’s made to the PGA Tour? And is it even relevant that Matt McCarty and Patton Kizzire are recent PGA Tour winners when their DataGolf pages have so much red on it that it resembles a murder scene?

This isn’t just recency bias though. How many times have we had to kick off our Friday mornings by watching Cameron Champ blade chip shots over the green? Or feel frustrated that we don’t have a single camera on emerging star and tournament favorite Ludvig Aberg at El Cardonal? Or listen to the announcers celebrate Rickie Fowler grinding his way to the cut line when we know he’s going to miss it by two shots. The PGA Tour does not have a pulse over which players its consumers actually want to watch and those that actually matter in 2025.

The PGA Tour is very cloak and dagger to reveal exactly how many people watch PGA Tour Live every week. But given its core target audience seems to be degenerate, tech-savvy golf gamblers and baby boomers who might have a 2/1 chance of even having a device capable of accessing ESPN+, my educated guess is the vast majority of people watching Thursday AM featured group coverage are the ones furiously tinkering with their DFS lineups 3 minutes before the first tee time.

Why aren’t they catering to this core audience to pack featured groups with golfers that gamblers are most frequently backing with their cold hard cash? We’ve lost the battle on the PGA Tour opening up their wallets to put a camera crew with each group to let us tune in ourselves. But it costs them exactly $0.00 to do a few Google searches on early-week picks and ownership to figure out which golfers we degenerates are most interested in tracking every week.  

Odds for tournaments are coming out sooner and sooner as books race to release odds first to get action in immediately. There are tremendous resources to figure out how DFS ownership is going to look like in any given week. And they have almost a full 48 hours to consume all this information before setting the tee times. There is no excuse about any time constraints to identify who the gambling community likes.

And there’s no moral dilemma because the PGA Tour is already in bed with the gambling companies! They have live FanDuel odds constantly updating on their leaderboard. And they have an adequate gambling staff with their GolfBet team. Let’s consult them to help mold the featured group coverage instead of confining them to 300-word takes about their favorite 25/1 outright.

But even for viewers who do not lay a single cent on a golf, is there anything wrong with showing them a player who isn’t on their radar but is on the radar of several others spending money on the belief they’ll play well? We see what’s happening to the PGA Tour as the schism between the haves and have-nots grow. One way to help bridge the gap would be to thrust these lesser-named players in the spotlight to show everyone why they are ascending! That way they’re not complete unknowns once they step up and play with the big boys at the Bay Hills or Quail Hollows of the world.

I stand here like Oliver politely requesting for another helping of gruel. Please PGA Tour, may I have some more Sam Stevens? I’m not asking for commercial-free coverage or investments in viewer-friendly gadgets that, in every other case, would make this CPA’s head explode. All I’m asking is to just read the room a little more and let me watch the chalky 55/1 golfer that I’ll immediately regret betting by my third cup of coffee. And maybe a little less of the ones who were stalwarts of a 2015 Presidents Cup team, barely crack 160-MPH ball speed, and haven’t sniffed the first page of a leaderboard in over a year.

I love movies. If I thought my audience loved movies, I would write and podcast about them more. If you don’t love movies, that’s totally cool too. Yet if do love movies and watch the Oscars intently every like myself (as well as all the movies nominated), here are my thoughts on some of the films and what/who will win the five major categories. I am not enough of a sicko to follow the below line categories, which is typically where you can really make money betting this thing. There’s an amazing 2 hour Oscars prediction podcast that I listen to every year that breaks down the below line categories (shoutout Big Picture), and I have made money on this awards show combining their pics with a few of my own opinions.

I feel quite strong in my opinions on the major categories, but if you are really searching for an edge, I would highly recommend listening to this podcast on the below line races. I certainly will be and posting my selections to the discord when I do. I believe the podcast comes out Thursday. Until then, here’s some commentary and predictions on the major categories. Disclaimer: I do not remotely attempt to pretend that I have the knowledge on the brains of academy voters that I do on golf courses. I do not have a real edge on this other than the fact that I consume a shit ton of movie pods all year and play golf with a lot of people that work in Hollywood. I am an idiot. 

Best Picture 

• The Nominees 

  • Anora (-200)

  • Conclave (+225)

  • The Brutalist (+600)

  • A Complete Unknown (40/1)

  • Wicked (50/1)

  • Emilia Perez (65/1)

  • The Substance (100/1)

  • I’m Still Here (100/1)

  • Dune: Part Two (100/1)

  • Nickel Boys (100/1)

• What Will Win: Anora 

• What Should Win: The Brutalist 

• Upset Chance: Yes, there’s been some late steam on Conclave, but it doesn’t have the upside. It would be an ultimate, safe, Oscars-y, preferential balloting move, but I just don’t see enough voters ranking it as number. I still believe there is a shard of hope for the #BrutalistBoys. Whether Adrien Brody wins Best Actor will be a huge indicator for us. If Brody wins Best Actor, this is an incredibly strong sign that our Best Picture hopes are dead. If there is a bet to make, it’s still Brutalist +600. 

Best Actress 

• The Nominees 

  • Demi Moore, The Substance (-250)

  • Mikey Madison, Anora (+165)

  • Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (14/1)

  • Karla Sofia Gacon, Emilia Perez (35/1)

  • Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (35/1)

• What Will Win: Demi Moore 

• What Should Win: Demi Moore 

• If there’s an upset…: The rest of the nominees are deader than Hoffa. The way to attack this category is to put Demi Moore in a parlay. Mikey Madison was a fun story and excellent performance, but the Substance’s inclusion in the Best Picture category tells us everything we need to know about the Academy’s support and opinion on Demi Moore this year. I’m happy for her. This is long over-due, checking the “It’s Her Turn” box, and Mikey Madison will be back. 

Best Actor 

• The Nominees 

  • Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (-230)

  • Timothee Chalet, A Complete Unknown (+150)

  • Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (16/1)

  • Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (35/1)

  • Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (35/1)

  • What Will Win: Timothee Chalamet 

  • What Should Win: Colman Domingo 

  • If there’s an upset…: This is by far the strongest acting category, but also a two horse race. Sebastian Stan and Colman Domingo were two of my favorite performances of the year, and Sing Sing might be the best thing I saw all year. Ironically, I actually thought Chalamet’s performance was the weakest of the group, and A Complete Unknown was one of the most overrated films I’ve seen in recent memory. With that being said, Chalamet has ran a tremendous campaign, he’s nailed every interview, and is Hollywood’s next great movie star. If they are smart, they’ll anoint him now. Leonardo DiCaprio had to wait 20 years into his career to nab his first actor, and I doubt we will see a similar trajectory for Timmy. +150 on Timmy is on the card. 

Best Supporting Actress 

• The Nominees 

  • Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez(-2500)

  • Ariana Grande, Wicked (8/1)

  • Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (14/1)

  • Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (20/1)

  • Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (25/1)

  • What Will Win: Zoe Saldana 

  • What Should Win: Zoe Saldana 

  • If there’s an upset…: Insert Kyle “Zero Percent Chance” meme. This race has been over for months, and I’ve got to say, it’s probably the right choice. Emilia Perez has become the most maligned movie of the year in many film circles. It became an easy target on Film Twitter for the outrageousness of some of its musical performances, and the controversy surrounding its star did not help either. Personally, I think the pendulum has swung too far. It was certainly the most audacious film I saw all year, and while they didn’t totally land plane, I found the end product at least… bold, which is something I cannot say about Wicked. It was decided months ago that Saldana will be the way to reward this film, and I have no qualms with that decision. This is an incredibly weak category. 

Best Supporting Actor 

• The Nominees 

  • Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (-3500)

  • Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (11/1)

  • Yura Borisov, Anora (18/1)

  • Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (20/1)

  • Guy Pearce, The Brutalist 

  • What Will Win: Kieran Culkin 

  • What Should Win: Jeremy Strong 

  • If there’s an upset…: For some reason, we just decided months ago that this was Kieran Culkin’s award, which remains one of the most confusing examples of groupthink I can remember in Oscars history. This was an incredibly mid performance by Culkin with a low degree of difficulty. He’s essentially playing himself, with a tone that he has spent years perfecting on Succession, which he has been properly lauded for! Jeremy Strong as Roy Cohn in the Apprentice was the most remarkable performance of the year. I’m glad it’s nominated, as it originally appeared that the academy would not want to touch a film about Trump. Guy Pearce and Yura Borisov were standout, scene stealing performances in what were probably the two most acclaimed films in the year, and they were never even involved in the race. Make it make sense. You can throw Culkin into a parlay if that’s what you’re into. 

Best Director 

• The Nominees 

  • Sean Baker, Anora (-165)

  • Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (+125)

  • Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez (20/1)

  • James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (25/1)

  • Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (25/1)

  • What Will Win: Brady Corbet

  • What Should Win: Brady Corbet 

  • If there’s an upset…: Sean Baker is the deserving favorite in this category after the PGA’s (Producers Guild of America awards) , yet Brady Corbet’s work on the Brutalist was simply operating on a different plane. I’m a huge Baker and Anora fan as well, and both are thought of as auteurs and highly skilled at their craft, but the degree of difficult for Corbet was higher on scale and operation. I understand that’s an incredibly reductive way to look at directing, I’m just getting in the minds of the academy voters. Best Director and Best Picture have split only six times in the last 25 years since the Best Picture race expanded to 10 films, but there’s a reason why Corbet’s odds for best director are lower than Brutalist’s odds for Best Picture. I think we have a chance, although I wish it was 2/1. I can’t tell you it’s an awesome bet at +125. 

Betting Card (THIS IS FOR FUN, I DID NOT MODEL THE OSCARS LIKE I MODEL A GOLF TOURNAMENT. BET RESPONSIBLY, I ONLY KIND OF KNOW WHAT I’M DOING HERE): 

• The Brutalist (+100) (I Bet this weeks ago and the line moved significantly against me after Anora won the PGA. This was a terrible and sad day for the #BrutalistBoys. I still have a little faith, but I’m not even sure I would fully endorse Brutalist at 7/1 right now. I fear this bet is deader than Hoffa. 

• Timmy Chalamet Best Actor (+150)

• Brady Corbet, Best Director (+125)

• Acting Parlay: Demi Moore/Zoe Saldana/Kieran Culkin (-200)

Finally, I watched 40 movies this year, 10 short of my goal. I thought it was a really weak year. I couldn’t even get to 10 films that I would truly ride for. Here are the five I would truly recommend. 

1. Sing Sing 

2. The Brutalist 

3. Challengers 

4. The Apprentice

5. Anora

Josh Segal

I have spent a lot of time writing thoughts on various topics regarding the TGL. I’m not afraid to say that I genuinely have enjoyed the league, and last week, one of the franchises made a move that was a first for the league’s history.

Los Angeles Golf Club (LAGC) announced that they signed Tony Finau to a one-match contract to fill in for Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood for its match against New York Golf Club this past Monday. 

In all honesty, I didn’t know you could make these types of transactions. I’m not exactly sure if there are any guidelines for signing players to one-match contracts and other similar moves. I guess if you have scheduling conflicts, someone’s gotta fill in. The matches must go on. 

When the news came out about Finau filling in, it sparked me to discuss three players I would want to see sign to a one-match contract. I took more into account entertainment value for television than just hand selecting the three best golfers not already on a roster.

Jordan Spieth 

Spieth was a lock to make this list for me. He mentioned on Smylie Kaufman’s podcast that he has received numerous calls about being a substitute. Spieth is one of the most entertaining golfers we have on tour because of the crazy shots he tries to pull off, and his sound bites with his longtime caddie Michael Greller are always amusing.

I could totally see Spieth creating some sort of chaos inside the SoFi Center. He would likely complain about the simulator technology or ask for some obscure ruling on the artificial green. Maybe one day Spieth can carve out some time to commit to the TGL.

There’s a reason why Kevin Kisner is in the TGL, and we know it’s not for his golf game. Kisner brings a comedic relief to the TGL while he’s mic’d up for matches, bringing the banter out of his teammates like Tiger Woods and the opposition. Signing Joel Dahmen would be a similar move. 

Ever since being featured on Full Swing, Joel Dahmen has grown immensely in popularity. Dahmen isn’t shy to be interviewed on golf podcasts and play alongside some of the popular YouTube golf channels like Fore Play and Bob Does Sports in a scramble. 

Dahmen’s personality is perfect for the TGL, and this is more of a made for TV event than watching the professionals hit shots into a screen on holes filled with lava.

Clanton is one of the best rising stars in professional golf, even though he is still just an amateur. He has proven already that he can compete and contend on the PGA Tour while not even being able to drink legally last year, and the tour needs to market him correctly.

Clanton joining TGL would be great to grow his brand and showcase his skills and personality to the younger audience that TGL is able to draw in. While only 21 years old, Clanton understands the importance of social media and the value it has. Like Dahmen, Clanton has experience in these YouTube golf type settings being featured on Good Good several times. 

From just watching and understanding the holes that these golfers play every week, distance is a massive advantage. Clanton is already one of the best ball strikers in the world and is very long off-the-tee. He would be a great fit for a one-match fill-in.